Ivory’s Economic Outlook
Below is a list of our latest Newsletters. I hope you find them interesting and informative as we provide a perspective of our Economic Outlook….. Ivory’s Economic Outlook! To receive monthly updates, please use the button below to sign up for our mailing list.
WHO COULD BLAME ME IF I WERE IN THE BUSINESS OF PREDICTING ANIMAL BEHAVIOR AND BET A LARGE SUM OF MONEY THAT A LIMPING ZEBRA WOULD BE EATEN BY A PRIDE OF APPROACHING LIONS? (Summer 2020 Newsletter)
This is no time to place a large wager on or against hastily constructed fences or the immediate demise of a Zebra who can’t outrun his predators, not when hungry lions and the Fed both have impressive track records.
THE CORONAVIRUS WAS THOUGHT TO BE A SPEED BUMP, AND MAYBE THAT’S WHAT IT WILL BECOME. (Winter 2020 Newsletter)
Economic growth has been weaving its way lower, snaking and hissing through indigenous rhetoric and central banking pep talks from around the globe – everybody’s on board. The engine of commerce is impervious to the gravity-stricken earnings numbers, that while beating expectations, are not improving on a rate of change basis.
THE VICTORY IS NOT CHOOSING ONE OPTION OVER ANOTHER, BUT DOING SO BASED ON A REPEATABLE PROCESS. (Fall 2019 Newsletter)
The market, much like a man who lost his hair far earlier than he expected, isn’t quite sure what to make of it all. While 75 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported topped analyst expectations, a third of the companies issued lower earnings guidance.
“I’M FROM TEXAS, AND ONE OF THE REASONS I LIKE TEXAS IS BECAUSE THERE’S NO ONE IN CONTROL” – Willie Nelson (Summer 2019 Newsletter)
In the aftermath of winning the silver medal in the 4×400 relay at the Junior Olympics national track meet, my then 10-year-old son decided he would play tackle football. For what it’s worth, his 4×100 team also placed 4th, which is to say he has a good set of wheels. The problem was he had no business on a football field – he wasn’t very good.
WHEN MEANS MATTER MORE THAN THE MEANING (Spring 2019 Newsletter)
The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to control inflation and maximize employment. It is a sound premise to believe we are more content with a good job and spending power that affords us the ability to do things that are fulfilling. Over the course of time, however, it has morphed into a wonder drug for financial assets that has Wall Street addicted to cheap money and profit margins, things that have less to do with happiness than we think.
JOHN COLTRANE BLOWS BLUE NOTES FROM HIS BRASS SAX (Winter 2019 Newsletter)
Investors have been buoyed by good news in the form of positive job numbers and wage growth that coaxed a solo from Wall Street’s magic horn. The problem is they’re not part of the band. When wages increase, corporate profits get squeezed and then “heh, let’s fire Bob”. Wage growth is a lagging indicator that the economy is decelerating, not a sign of better things to come.