Ivory’s Economic Outlook

Below is a list of our latest Newsletters. I hope you find them interesting and informative as we provide a unique perspective of our Economic Outlook….. Ivory’s Economic Outlook! To receive monthly updates, please use the button below to sign up for our mailing list.

The victory is not choosing one option over another, but doing so based on a repeatable process. (Fall 2019 Newsletter)

The market, much like a man who lost his hair far earlier than he expected, isn’t quite sure what to make of it all. While 75 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported topped analyst expectations, a third of the companies issued lower earnings guidance.  

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“I’M FROM TEXAS, AND ONE OF THE REASONS I LIKE TEXAS IS BECAUSE THERE’S NO ONE IN CONTROL” – Willie Nelson (Summer 2019 Newsletter)

In the aftermath of winning the silver medal in the 4×400 relay at the Junior Olympics national track meet, my then 10-year-old son decided he would play tackle football. For what it’s worth, his 4×100 team also placed 4th, which is to say he has a good set of wheels. The problem was he had no business on a football field – he wasn’t very good. 

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WHEN MEANS MATTER MORE THAN THE MEANING (Spring 2019 Newsletter)

The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to control inflation and maximize employment. It is a sound premise to believe we are more content with a good job and spending power that affords us the ability to do things that are fulfilling. Over the course of time, however, it has morphed into a wonder drug for financial assets that has Wall Street addicted to cheap money and profit margins, things that have less to do with happiness than we think. 

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JOHN COLTRANE BLOWS BLUE NOTES FROM HIS BRASS SAX (Winter 2019 Newsletter)

Investors have been buoyed by good news in the form of positive job numbers and wage growth that coaxed a solo from Wall Street’s magic horn. The problem is they’re not part of the band. When wages increase, corporate profits get squeezed and then “heh, let’s fire Bob”. Wage growth is a lagging indicator that the economy is decelerating, not a sign of better things to come. 

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WHEN LIFE WAS SIMPLE (Fall 2018 Newsletter)

GDP growth has increased on a rate of change basis for nine straight quarters and has likely peaked. Earnings growth is also beginning to decelerate. Sure, earnings have been good, but not compared to what was reported last quarter, declining from 24.9 percent growth to 21.9 percent this quarter with 56/500 companies reporting as of this writing . This is not the boogey man; it’s called the end of a cycle. 

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THINGS HAVE CHANGED (Summer 2018 Newsletter)

The economy is likely to begin to slow in the back end of the year, and like gentrification it will bring change most find uncomfortable. The same way grandmothers must sell the family home for pennies on the dollar to pay the rising property taxes, companies must grow profits in a slowing economy with rising rates. 

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YOU CAN HAVE IT ALL? (Winter 2018 Newsletter)

Uncle Sam is prone to invite Santa Claus to Capitol Hill during slow economic times to hand out stocking stuffers taxpayers can spend, which in turns boosts economic growth. We held our noses when the Federal Reserve executed Quantitate Easing because we feared the worst after the housing crisis. The odd thing about stimulating the economy with tax cuts today is that our economy is already pretty strong. 

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FROM THE IMPOSSIBLE TO THE INEVITABLE (Spring 2017 Newsletter)

While the economy was slowing last year without any reaction by the markets, this year we have experienced economic growth and so far so good. After all, U.S. economic growth fell from 3.3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2015 to 1.3% in the second quarter of 2016. After bottoming out, growth is rebounding once again with 4th quarter 2016 U.S. GDP growth at 2% year-over-year. 

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